Climate warning from International Energy Agency
November 29, 2011
The International Energy Agency (IEA) who have been representing the energy sector for over 40 years, has added its dire warnings regarding the lack of decisive action from countries around the world in relation to urgent change that are needed in the wake of climate change.
According to this conservative organisation the current situation will lead to a disastrous 6°C warming, which will see a chain reaction in climate change. Even its still conservative greenhouse limitation target of 450 million points per million, will lead to an unprecedented man-made warming of 2°C.
The 450 scenario requires a dramatic and immediate change in policies and investment, effectively a halt to new coal fired power plants, increased deployment of gas (but only as a transitional fuel), massive investment in renewables, and a significant deployment in nuclear, particularly in developing economies (to replace their coal-fired plans).
The IEA calculates that 80% of that carbon budget is already locked in by plants that have already been built. This “lock-in” leaves little room for manoeuvre. But delaying serious action until 2015, just three years away, would lift that lock-in to 95% of the carbon budget, a scenario that that would mean that half of the world’s coal- and gas-fired energy plants would need to be shut early – by 2035.
If action was delayed until 2017, then the “lock-in” of existing plants would exceed the world’s carbon budget. In this case, the IEA says, if the world wants to meet that 450 target, then no new coal- or gas-fired generation could be built after that time, without forcing the immediate closure of another dirtier plant. Effectively, the only option after 2017 is to build emissions-free generation – renewables and nuclear. Any investment in appliances, buildings and passenger and commercial vehicles after 2017 will also have to be emissions free, or require the early retirement of some existing plant or facility to create headroom for the new investment.
Both transport and energy grids need to be completely transformed. Improved fuel efficiency plays the biggest role in transport, but by 2035, electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids will account for one third of all vehicle sales. Biofuels also are a major contributor.
Coal goes from 32% of capacity (and 41% of generation) to just 13% (and 15%), with a net loss of 300GW of capacity to 1,268GW. To understand the implications of that, around 330GW-worth of plants are now under construction, so more than 600GW of coal fired plants will have to be retired – much of it early. That’s not much of a growth scenario.
Gas nearly doubles its capacity, to 2,10GW, but its market share falls from 24% to 22%; nuclear’s share increases slightly to 9% from 8%, but its capacity also doubles (to 865GW), mostly in developing countries such as China, India and Korea. The share of hydro falls slightly, to 19% from 20% cent, although its capacity also nearly doubles to 1,803GW.
The most dramatic change is in non-hydro renewables, whose share increases phenomenally – from just 4% in 2009, to 34% of global electricity capacity in 2035. Wind capacity grows 10-fold to 1,685GW, sending Landscape Guardians across the globe completely barmy. Solar PV rises 40-fold to 901GW from 22GW in 2009; solar thermal leaps from just 1GW to 226GW; geothermal from 11GW to 60GW; marine from zero to 23GW, and biomass grows six-fold to 329GW. In terms of generation, non-hydro renewables soar to 28% from just 2% in 2009, nuclear and hydro have a 20% share each, while coal drops from 41% to 15%, and gas from 21% to 17%.
Solar thermal has a compound annual growth rate in investment of 35% from 2011 to 2035. Solar PV, even after its spectacular growth in recent years, delivers 15% compound annual growth for the next two and a half decades, wind grows at 10% per annum and marine at 18%.
The renewables sector will attract a total of $20 trillion in new investment. The other growth industries in this scenario are clean transport – fuel efficiency and EVs - which attract around $6.3 trillion. The building sector attracts an extra $4.1 trillion, “smart” energy technology attracts $2 trillion. The losers? Coal capacity slumps by 0.5% per year out to 2035, a net reduction in investment of $6 trillion, and investment in poles and wires would be reduced by $900 billion – even after the investment needed to accommodate intermittent renewables. There is a lot at stake for vested interests.
Delaying action is a false economy. For every $1 of avoided investment between 2011 and 2020, either through reduced low-carbon investment or adoption of cheaper fossil-fuel investment options, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent between 2021 and 2035 to compensate for the increased emissions.
The aggressive investment in the 450 scenario, which includes the dismantling of fossil fuel subsidies, and the diversion of some of that to renewables, will mean consumers around the world actually pay $669 billion less in energy costs than they otherwise would. And, says the IEA, there are other benefits: less pollution; more countries that are energy self reliant (less chance of conflict); healthier people who live longer; and a much greater chance of preventing runaway global warming, with far lower adaptation costs.
