Security of electricity supply in Europe: Midterm Adequacy Forecast


ENTSO-E has released the new edition of its Midterm Adequacy Forecast: a state-of-the-art pan-European mathematical analysis of security of electricity supply up to 2020 and 2025. The document answers key questions about the resource adequacy in relation to the impact of climate on our power system, the security of supply and the interdependency between countries in Europe. Adequacy in this context describes the continuous balance between net available generation on the one hand, and net load levels on the other.

One of the conclusions is that climate heavily impacts resource adequacy, in particular with renewable energy sources on the rise. Power systems are increasingly affected by climate conditions, such as wind, solar radiation and temperature. Furthermore, reliability levels throughout Europe are very diversified, with risk of resource scarcity towards 2020 in islands and countries in the periphery. As such interconnections are crucial for supporting adequacy in large systems by helping to balance supply and demand with flexibility and enabling the interconnected countries to support each other in critical situations.

Another insight gained is that substantial coordinated efforts are needed to face these risks of resource inadequacy. There European power systems are highly interdependent but at the same time important policies such as renewables support schemes are dealt with on a purely national level. More coordination of policies and regulation is crucial to ensure an efficient deployment of complementary measures to overcome adequacy problems.

The report is out for public consultation until 10 November